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One Island Chain, Three Playbooks

February 3, 2026

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On December 13, the Philippine Coast Guard said Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons and aggressive maneuvers against Philippine fishing boats near Sabina (Escoda) Shoal, injuring three fishermen and damaging two boats. The same reporting includes a Philippine allegation that Chinese personnel cut anchor lines in rough seas.

To the fishermen, they don’t see the strategic competition. It’s simply one terrible day. And that’s the problem with the first island chain as it exists in real life. The story isn’t written by admirals. It’s written on the seas with water cannon spray, bent rails and torn anchor lines.  These are small incidents that fall largely on civilians but then ricochet across global politics.

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One Island Chain, Three Disconnected Playbooks

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