The Chagos Islands, and particularly Diego Garcia, are a linchpin in U.S. and Five Eyes (FVEY) power projection across the Indian Ocean. They enable long-range bomber operations, naval replenishment, and rapid deployment into the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa. The UK’s decision to return the islands to Mauritius—underpinned by a 2019 International Court of Justice advisory opinion and UN General Assembly resolution—has shifted the strategic calculus. Mauritius’ deepening economic and political ties with China, including infrastructure investment, a free trade agreement, and cultural exchange programs, create a scenario where Western military access could be constrained over time.